China's Shanghai Composite Index will be down 33+% YTD

Created by Afforess on 2016-01-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.

  • Afforess estimated 66% on 2016-01-07
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 20% and said “Since you’ve stated 33%, 30% doesn’t count. I assume at least 33%?on 2016-01-08
  • Afforess said “33+% means at least 33%, yeson 2016-01-08
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “YTD means year-to-date, i.e., from the start of a given calendar year up til the date in question, which must be in that same year. Since the end date is Jan 1, 2017, I am unclear on what this means.on 2016-01-09
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “Do you just mean it’ll be down 33+% from it’s level when you made your prediction? on 2016-01-09
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “Oh I see, YTD for 2016. Never mind, sorry.on 2016-01-09
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “That being said, does the prediction simply refer to the end date for the price level, or does it count as correct if there is a drop of 33+% and subsequent recovery by the end date?on 2016-01-09
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “I assume you’re going by the latter specification?on 2016-01-09
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 58% on 2016-01-11
  • Afforess said “The former, Tapetum-Lucidum. The Shanghai Composite has to close down 33% YTD. A 33% drop and recovery does not count.on 2016-01-12
  • Afforess said “For reference: current YTD is already -16.6%. Half way to 33%.on 2016-01-13
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 40% and said “Unwilling, because I very much don’t think it will happen, but halfway there does improve the odds.on 2016-01-14
  • kuudes   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.

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