By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders – sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy… – in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.

Created by jasticE on 2016-01-08; known on 2026-12-31

  • jasticE estimated 65% on 2016-01-08
  • jasticE said “ 2016-01-08
  • Tanner estimated 45% on 2016-01-08
  • JoshuaZ estimated 52% on 2016-01-08
  • EloiseRosen estimated 50% on 2016-01-09
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 80% on 2016-01-09
  • Raahul_Kumar said “The first part of the prediction is possible today, but the second part about close to zero risk of severe complications is weaselly. What % of severe complications is acceptable exactly?on 2016-01-09
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 43% and said “Technically capable is a bit hard to define. Unless we have successful gene therapy trials for every single-gene disorder by 2027, this should not count as correct.on 2016-01-09
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “And I am also wondering about what Raahul asked.on 2016-01-09
  • Jach estimated 60% and said “Assuming single digit chance max of complicationson 2016-01-10
  • splorridge estimated 45% on 2016-01-11
  • ChristianKl estimated 1% and said “Fixing arbitary single-gene disorders means that you are able to fix disorders in every kind of cell. That includes neurons protected by the blood-brain barrier and that don’t tend to doublicate very often. I find that highly unlikely.on 2016-01-11
  • Medea estimated 20% on 2016-01-11
  • VonFoerster estimated 68% on 2016-01-14
  • JoshuaZ estimated 24% and said “Thinking about this more, probably anchored badly at first. on 2016-01-14
  • RoryS estimated 3% on 2016-01-20
  • JoshuaZ estimated 12% and said “Updating per ChristianKI’s point. on 2016-01-20
  • mortehu estimated 15% on 2016-01-21
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 10% and said “I think a 1% risk of severe complications is hard to achieve, 0 isn’t even in the running. Possible, but unlikely.on 2016-01-30
  • themusicgod1 estimated 30% and said “Close to zero risk of severe complications is too much. This is coming imho but it’s going to be risky at first.on 2016-09-25
  • two2thehead estimated 1% and said ““Detecting SGDs AND fixing them AND have near zero risk of severe complications” is unlikely. Trials certainly but not all three AND conditions.on 2016-09-26

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