The FANG group will have their valuations cut in half from their 2015 peak.

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-09; known on 2016-12-25; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-17.

• Raahul_Kumar estimated 90% on 2016-01-09
• Raahul_Kumar said “Apple is the first to fall – https://www.google.com/finance?cid=22144” on 2016-01-09
• Raahul_Kumar said “Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google = FANG.” on 2016-01-09
• Raahul_Kumar changed the deadline from “on 2016-12-25” and changed their prediction from “The FANG group will have their valuations cut in half.” on 2016-01-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2016-01-09
• PseudonymousUser said “How are you judging this? A sum of the four valuations?” on 2016-01-09
• PseudonymousUser said “And is the 2015 peak determined by the sum of the valuations, or are you starting each stock off at its own 2015 peak?” on 2016-01-09
• Raahul_Kumar said “Each stock had a different peak day in 2015, so by looking up their current stock prices vs their peak in the 52 weeks of 2015. Individually. ” on 2016-01-09
• PseudonymousUser estimated 40% on 2016-01-09
• PseudonymousUser said “Google at $390 would be amazing. I kinda hope this happens. ” on 2016-01-09
• PseudonymousUser said “Apple has much higher exposure to Chinese aggregate demand than any of the FANG stocks. I’m bearish on China, but skeptical that it’ll get this bad for US companies, let alone FANG stocks.” on 2016-01-09
• Raahul_Kumar said “US companies on the whole are already in a bear market, it is only the FANG stocks that are currently propping up the entire index. 4 companies cannot sustain an entire economy.” on 2016-01-11
• Raahul_Kumar said “Bob would you be interested in a seperate prediction based on sum of valuations approach?” on 2016-01-11
• Raahul_Kumar said “Netflix $120 Dec 29. It is now valued at 82, a 50% cut.Amazon has fallen from $675 to 502, 25% drop.Alphabet was $776 in 2014, 683.57, 12% drop.Facebook has only fallen by $1. The entire group has fallen 20% as per my prediction.” on 2016-02-06
• Temeraire said “What if each stock falls 50%, and then recovers? What if their troughs happen non-concurrently?” on 2016-02-12
• Raahul_Kumar said “Netflix as an example has already fallen by 50%. Exact same to happen to the other 3, and that will count as the prediction having come true. They must drop by at least 50%, more is fine, but less is not. 49% is too small.” on 2016-02-13
• PseudonymousUser said “AMZN was 749.87 on Dec 30, 2016. Its peak in 2015 was around 650. It never fell below 500 in the specified interval of time. Thus, the prediction is false. ” on 2020-01-17
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-17.