New Mersenne prime to be discovered by January 1, 2020

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-20.

• JoshuaZ estimated 61% on 2016-01-10
• JoshuaZ said “Followup to http://predictionbook.com/predictions/20059” on 2016-01-10
• themusicgod1 estimated 75% and said “I’m assuming this doesn’t include the NSA, which presumably has already found it.” on 2016-01-11
• JoshuaZ said “Yes, publicly known, although I doubt there are any Mersenne primes known to the NSA that aren’t known to the public. There’s not any direct crypto interest in finding them, and the resources involved to search are immense. ” on 2016-01-11
• splorridge estimated 58% on 2016-01-11
• lalaithion estimated 80% on 2016-01-14
• lalaithion   judged this prediction right on 2016-01-20.
• lalaithion   judged this prediction unknown on 2016-01-20.
• lalaithion said “http://www.mersenne.org/primes/?press=M74207281 Does this count?” on 2016-01-20
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2016-01-20.
• themusicgod1 said “yeah I’d say so.” on 2016-01-20