The VIX index will go above 35 by April 1, 2016

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-04-01; judged wrong by equivrel-markets on 2016-04-02.

• PseudonymousUser estimated 77% on 2016-01-11
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 50% and said “Today it has gone down again, very volatile. Unsure which way it will go.” on 2016-01-11
• PseudonymousUser estimated 40% on 2016-01-12
• davidmanheim estimated 10% and said “Unlikely to have anything that disruptive occur by then.” on 2016-02-02
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 70% and said “I was wrong last time, but the vix will go up.” on 2016-02-02
• Raahul_Kumar said “23.38 today” on 2016-02-08
• Raahul_Kumar said “26 today” on 2016-02-09
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 85% and said “Vix is at 28 today, the blood is in the water. Something is badly broken with the VIX, even after 5 days of bloody mayhem it’s only at 28???” on 2016-02-11
• Temeraire estimated 29% on 2016-02-12
• equivrel estimated 60% on 2016-02-14
• equivrel-markets estimated 60% on 2016-02-14
• Raahul_Kumar said “VIX is erratic, 25 today, I’m going to let it ride, in my opnion only bad news lies in the future.” on 2016-02-16
• Temeraire estimated 9% and said “Less time remaining and a lot of ground needing to be made up. Did some simple calculations on empirical distribution.” on 2016-02-25
• Raahul_Kumar said “The Vix was at 40 in Sept 2015. I’m thinking your calculator is broken. That was only 5 months ago.” on 2016-02-25
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 30% and said “16.86 today, only 25 days, so barring unforeseen bad news the VIX seems good for now.” on 2016-03-07
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 15% and said “Because only 17 days left for VIX to change.” on 2016-03-15
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 10% and said “14 today, 16 last 5 days, so 35 is unlikely short of some crisis.” on 2016-03-23
• equivrel-markets   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-04-02.