The VIX index will go above 35 by April 1, 2016

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-04-01; judged wrong by equivrel-markets on 2016-04-02.

  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 77% on 2016-01-11
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 50% and said “Today it has gone down again, very volatile. Unsure which way it will go.on 2016-01-11
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 40% on 2016-01-12
  • davidmanheim estimated 10% and said “Unlikely to have anything that disruptive occur by then.on 2016-02-02
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 70% and said “I was wrong last time, but the vix will go up.on 2016-02-02
  • Raahul_Kumar said “23.38 todayon 2016-02-08
  • Raahul_Kumar said “26 todayon 2016-02-09
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 85% and said “Vix is at 28 today, the blood is in the water. Something is badly broken with the VIX, even after 5 days of bloody mayhem it’s only at 28???on 2016-02-11
  • Temeraire estimated 29% on 2016-02-12
  • equivrel estimated 60% on 2016-02-14
  • equivrel-markets estimated 60% on 2016-02-14
  • Raahul_Kumar said “VIX is erratic, 25 today, I’m going to let it ride, in my opnion only bad news lies in the future.on 2016-02-16
  • Temeraire estimated 9% and said “Less time remaining and a lot of ground needing to be made up. Did some simple calculations on empirical distribution.on 2016-02-25
  • Raahul_Kumar said “The Vix was at 40 in Sept 2015. I’m thinking your calculator is broken. That was only 5 months ago.on 2016-02-25
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 30% and said “16.86 today, only 25 days, so barring unforeseen bad news the VIX seems good for now.on 2016-03-07
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 15% and said “Because only 17 days left for VIX to change.on 2016-03-15
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 10% and said “14 today, 16 last 5 days, so 35 is unlikely short of some crisis.on 2016-03-23
  • equivrel-markets   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-04-02.

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