SpaceX to recover first stage of an orbital rocket after ocean barge landing in first half of 2016

Created by mortehu on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-08.

  • mortehu estimated 80% on 2016-01-11
  • JoshuaZ estimated 78% on 2016-01-11
  • PseudonymousUser said “Is this Right/Wrong based on the first time they try to do this, or is this Right if they succeed any time in 1H 2016?on 2016-01-12
  • mortehu said “Any success in 1H 2016 is “right”.on 2016-01-12
  • JoshuaZ estimated 79% and said “(Note: this is a very slight movement based on Sunday test on schedule, so really a move from 78 to about 78.7) on 2016-01-12
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 80% on 2016-01-12
  • JoshuaZ estimated 80% and said “Still on target. on 2016-01-17
  • JoshuaZ estimated 42% and said “Today’s attempt seems to have failed. Called a “hard” landing. Unclear if anything is salveagable. on 2016-01-17
  • JoshuaZ said “Tipped over but didn’t explode. So this is going to be tough to judge for now. on 2016-01-17
  • mortehu said “Exploded: Many more launches are expected in 1H 2016.on 2016-01-18
  • JoshuaZ estimated 39% and said “Yep, exploded not just tipped. So this go at lest is a no. on 2016-01-18
  • lalaithion estimated 90% on 2016-01-21
  • ChristianKl estimated 75% on 2016-01-22
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2016-04-08.
  • JoshuaZ said “Picture perfect landing. on 2016-04-08

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