SpaceX to recover first stage of an orbital rocket after ocean barge landing in first half of 2016

Created by mortehu on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-08.

• mortehu estimated 80% on 2016-01-11
• JoshuaZ estimated 78% on 2016-01-11
• PseudonymousUser said “Is this Right/Wrong based on the first time they try to do this, or is this Right if they succeed any time in 1H 2016?” on 2016-01-12
• mortehu said “Any success in 1H 2016 is “right”.” on 2016-01-12
• JoshuaZ estimated 79% and said “(Note: this is a very slight movement based on Sunday test on schedule, so really a move from 78 to about 78.7) ” on 2016-01-12
• PseudonymousUser estimated 80% on 2016-01-12
• JoshuaZ estimated 80% and said “Still on target. ” on 2016-01-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 42% and said “Today’s attempt seems to have failed. Called a “hard” landing. Unclear if anything is salveagable. ” on 2016-01-17
• JoshuaZ said “Tipped over but didn’t explode. So this is going to be tough to judge for now. ” on 2016-01-17
• mortehu said “Exploded: https://www.instagram.com/p/BAqirNbwEc0/ Many more launches are expected in 1H 2016.” on 2016-01-18
• JoshuaZ estimated 39% and said “Yep, exploded not just tipped. So this go at lest is a no. ” on 2016-01-18
• lalaithion estimated 90% on 2016-01-21
• ChristianKl estimated 75% on 2016-01-22
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2016-04-08.
• JoshuaZ said “Picture perfect landing. ” on 2016-04-08