China will fall into disorder and civil war by the end of 2017
Created by chinawillfall on 2016-01-13; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
- chinawillfall estimated 50% on 2016-01-13
- JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2016-01-13
- PseudonymousUser estimated 6% on 2016-01-13
- Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% on 2016-01-13
- splorridge estimated 2% on 2016-01-13
- Medea estimated 1% on 2016-01-13
- lalaithion estimated 3% on 2016-01-14
- ts2m estimated 2% and said “Lacks definition of what “disorder” means (my dorm is in disorder, too); who and how many must die in what timeframe in goverment-militia conflict to be a civil war.” on 2016-01-14
- PseudonymousUser estimated 2% on 2016-01-14
- Calien estimated 1% on 2016-01-15
- timujin estimated 5% on 2016-01-16
- PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2016-01-17
- PseudonymousUser said “Suggested formalization:” on 2016-01-21
- PseudonymousUser said “A Chinese militant group that is not allies with the PLA—and which possesses more than 20,000 members—is formed.” on 2016-01-21
- PseudonymousUser said “Said militant group is publicly accused of theft, damaging property, injuring people, or committing homicide.” on 2016-01-21
- PseudonymousUser said “The homicide rate in China goes above 10.0 per 100,000 people.” on 2016-01-21
- PseudonymousUser said “The CCCP attempts to forcefully subdue the hypothetical militant group.” on 2016-01-21
- PseudonymousUser estimated 3% and said “The militant group is responsible for more than 20,000 deaths.” on 2016-01-21
- PseudonymousUser said “If all these events occur, then we may say that China has fallen into disorder and civil war.” on 2016-01-21
- Raahul_Kumar said “Last civil war had 8 million dead, 20 000 is more like a little riot. At least make it a million minimum.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Civil_War” on 2016-01-21
- ChristianKl estimated 1% on 2016-01-23
- kuudes said “Given China has 1.4 bn people, anything that kills less than about 6500 persons will not show on statistics with 1/100000 level. 20000 would indeed be just an extreme outlier with 1/100000 occurance frequency.” on 2016-01-24
- Raahul_Kumar said “Indeed, for it to even show up in the stats at least 8 million dead is the bare minimum. Dead bodies is the most unambiguous way to measure a civil war.” on 2016-01-24
- NathanMcKnight estimated 1% on 2016-01-26
- themusicgod1 estimated 44% on 2016-03-15
- PseudonymousUser said “I chose a “low” number because 20,000 highly skilled insurgents should still count. I’m not sure that would be a civil war though—maybe something with adversaries that light should be classified as a coup.” on 2016-03-15
- JoshuaZ estimated 2% and said “Changing percentage based on wide definition. ” on 2016-03-15
- PlacidPlatypus estimated 1% on 2016-03-15
- jesselevine estimated 0% and said “Absolute ridiculous prediction in my opinion. Country is over 3.5k years old.” on 2016-03-15
- PseudonymousUser said “They had a civil war as recently as 1950, though” on 2016-03-15
- two2thehead estimated 1% on 2016-05-11
- ts2m estimated 1% on 2016-08-04
- PseudonymousUser judged this prediction wrong on 2018-01-01.