China will fall into disorder and civil war by the end of 2017

Created by chinawillfall on 2016-01-13; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2018-01-01.

  • chinawillfall estimated 50% on 2016-01-13
  • JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2016-01-13
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 6% on 2016-01-13
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% on 2016-01-13
  • splorridge estimated 2% on 2016-01-13
  • Medea estimated 1% on 2016-01-13
  • lalaithion estimated 3% on 2016-01-14
  • ts2m estimated 2% and said “Lacks definition of what “disorder” means (my dorm is in disorder, too); who and how many must die in what timeframe in goverment-militia conflict to be a civil war.on 2016-01-14
  • bobpage estimated 2% on 2016-01-14
  • Calien estimated 1% on 2016-01-15
  • timujin estimated 5% on 2016-01-16
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 1% on 2016-01-17
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “Suggested formalization:on 2016-01-21
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “A Chinese militant group that is not allies with the PLA—and which possesses more than 20,000 members—is formed.on 2016-01-21
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “Said militant group is publicly accused of theft, damaging property, injuring people, or committing homicide.on 2016-01-21
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “The homicide rate in China goes above 10.0 per 100,000 people.on 2016-01-21
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “The CCCP attempts to forcefully subdue the hypothetical militant group.on 2016-01-21
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 3% and said “The militant group is responsible for more than 20,000 deaths.on 2016-01-21
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “If all these events occur, then we may say that China has fallen into disorder and civil war.on 2016-01-21
  • Raahul_Kumar said “Last civil war had 8 million dead, 20 000 is more like a little riot. At least make it a million minimum.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Civil_Waron 2016-01-21
  • ChristianKl estimated 1% on 2016-01-23
  • kuudes said “Given China has 1.4 bn people, anything that kills less than about 6500 persons will not show on statistics with 1/100000 level. 20000 would indeed be just an extreme outlier with 1/100000 occurance frequency.on 2016-01-24
  • Raahul_Kumar said “Indeed, for it to even show up in the stats at least 8 million dead is the bare minimum. Dead bodies is the most unambiguous way to measure a civil war.on 2016-01-24
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 1% on 2016-01-26
  • themusicgod1 estimated 44% on 2016-03-15
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “I chose a “low” number because 20,000 highly skilled insurgents should still count. I’m not sure that would be a civil war though—maybe something with adversaries that light should be classified as a coup.on 2016-03-15
  • JoshuaZ estimated 2% and said “Changing percentage based on wide definition. on 2016-03-15
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 1% on 2016-03-15
  • jesselevine estimated 0% and said “Absolute ridiculous prediction in my opinion. Country is over 3.5k years old.on 2016-03-15
  • bobpage said “They had a civil war as recently as 1950, thoughon 2016-03-15
  • two2thehead estimated 1% on 2016-05-11
  • ts2m estimated 1% on 2016-08-04
  • bobpage   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-01-01.

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