Donald Trump will win the 2016 Republican Caucus in Iowa
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-02.
- danielfilan estimated 30% on 2016-01-15
- JoshuaZ estimated 32% on 2016-01-15
- PseudonymousUser said “https://www.predictit.org/Market/1327/Who-will-win-the-2016-Iowa-Republican-caucus” on 2016-01-15
- PseudonymousUser said “http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html” on 2016-01-15
- PseudonymousUser estimated 55% on 2016-01-15
- PseudonymousUser estimated 33% on 2016-01-17
- PseudonymousUser estimated 85% and said “I don’t see Trump losing an 11 point lead in 12 days” on 2016-01-22
- JoshuaZ estimated 49% and said “Turnout may hurt a lot. ” on 2016-01-31
- JoshuaZ estimated 62% and said “Updating based on http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-final-des-moines-register-iowa-poll-is-out-how-accurate-will-it-be/” on 2016-01-31
- PseudonymousUser estimated 5% and said “http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/iowa-caucus-presidential-election-2016/” on 2016-02-02
- PseudonymousUser judged this prediction wrong on 2016-02-02.