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Chinese economy will be larger than the US in the future. After that, India is the next best candidate that could surpass US economy in the next 25 years. After that China and India could be competing for number one — Masoyoshi Son, Softbank

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-17; known on 2040-06-24

  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 99% on 2016-01-17
  • Raahul_Kumar changed the deadline from “on 2040-06-23” on 2016-01-17
  • Raahul_Kumar changed the deadline from “on 2040-06-23” and changed their prediction from “I feel that the Chinese economy will be larger than the US in the future. After that, India is the next best candidate that could surpass US economy in the next 25 years. After that China and India could be competing for number one — Masoyoshi Son, Softb” on 2016-01-17
  • Raahul_Kumar said “http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-06-23/news/63746098_1_pm-modi-valuations-india/2” on 2016-01-17
  • Raahul_Kumar said “Son hasn’t stated, but I will interpret that as US dollars in current prices as measured by the IMF.” on 2016-01-17
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 96% on 2016-01-17
  • ren estimated 15% on 2016-01-20
  • JoshuaZ estimated 89% on 2016-01-20
  • danpop estimated 60% and said “My prediction: China will surpass US in the next 10 years, but India will only do this by 2080. At that point China’s nominal GDP will be more than twice of US’s GDP ” on 2016-01-24
  • Raahul_Kumar said “Danpop, would you mind making that a separate prediction?” on 2016-02-01
  • two2thehead estimated 5% and said “Too many boolean ANDS make this unlikely imo.” on 2016-06-16
  • two2thehead said “Assumption. Within the next 25 years, China will surpass the US. Then India will have a high probability of surpassing the US within the same 25 year period” on 2016-06-16
  • two2thehead said “If China doesn’t surpass the us within $TimePeriod then prediction wrong” on 2016-06-16
  • two2thehead said “If India surpasses the US within $TimePeriod then prediction wrong” on 2016-06-16
  • two2thehead said “If China and then India (in that order specifically) surpasses the US within $TimePeriod, then prediction right.CONDITIONAL on C and I not falling from numbers 1 and 2 respectively.” on 2016-06-16
  • two2thehead said “Clarification: If India surpasses the US within $TimePeriod FIRST and BEFORE China, then prediction wrong” on 2016-06-16