2016 North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.

• JoshuaZ estimated 96% on 2016-01-26
• JoshuaZ said “Coming from http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/01/25/predictions-for-2016/” on 2016-01-26
• jesselevine estimated 95% and said “I agree, though the demise may not come from a civil war or revolt but from international intervention/mass famine due to sanctions” on 2016-01-27
• danpop estimated 99% and said “For sure” on 2016-01-27
• daniel74f estimated 80% on 2016-01-27
• unexpectedEOF estimated 80% on 2016-02-04
• two2thehead estimated 95% and said “Wanted to write 80 to 85 percent. First thought was 95. Posting so I can compare and contrast first vs second thought predictions.” on 2016-06-16
• two2thehead said “Kim Jong-un has done well in allowing (or more precisely not punishing) rudimentary, low level capitalism in North Korea. That will probably let any tensions abate. Until 2016 is over, at least.” on 2016-06-16
• two2thehead said “Related prediction: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/176968” on 2016-07-11
• RoryS estimated 96% on 2016-07-11
• themusicgod1 estimated 63% on 2016-11-08
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2017-01-01.