2016 SpaceX successfully launches a reused rocket:

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.

• JoshuaZ estimated 58% on 2016-01-26
• JoshuaZ said “Coming from http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/01/25/predictions-for-2016/” on 2016-01-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 61% on 2016-01-27
• davidmanheim estimated 65% on 2016-01-28
• mortehu estimated 60% and said “Musk says 70% chance” on 2016-03-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 62% and said “Updating based on successful landing. ” on 2016-04-08
• mortehu estimated 80% and said “Already landed rocket to be reused before July. More landed rocket expected in time for additional attempts this year.” on 2016-04-12
• mortehu estimated 70% and said “Launch schedule less optimistic now (September-October)” on 2016-06-11
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.