2016 Election is Clinton vs Rubio.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-27; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-10-01.

• NathanMcKnight estimated 25% on 2016-01-27
• themusicgod1 estimated 1% on 2016-01-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 24% on 2016-01-27
• PseudonymousUser said “Assuming this refers to only the GOP and Democratic candidate even if a candidate from another party or an Independent polls strongly” on 2016-01-28
• PseudonymousUser estimated 9% on 2016-01-28
• NathanMcKnight said “Yeah, the assumption that this is a 2-candidate race is baked in to this prediction. If a strong 3rd party emerges, I’d call the prediction wrong. ” on 2016-01-28
• Michael Dickens estimated 10% on 2016-01-28
• davidmanheim estimated 10% and said “I don’t think Trump is going to get the nomination, (though it’s very possible) but I’m unsure who will manage to dethrone him.” on 2016-01-29
• Medea estimated 15% on 2016-01-29
• PseudonymousUser said “Marking the prediction wrong if a strong third party candidate emerges is a much more complicated way to judge than to just ignore the other parties. How strong is strong enough?” on 2016-01-30
• PseudonymousUser said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_third_party_performances_in_United_States_elections” on 2016-01-30
• NathanMcKnight said ““How strong is strong enough?” If a Perot ‘92-like candidate emerges, this prediction is an unambiguous “wrong” and if all non-Clinton/Rubio candidates are less significant than Nader ’00, it’s right. ” on 2016-01-30
• NathanMcKnight said “…but I’m not sure what the right metric is for this. National polling averages? Maybe define “strong” as an RCP average greater than the difference between Nader & Perot’s final popular votes?” on 2016-01-30
• NathanMcKnight said “Nader 2000: 2.74%, Perot 1992: 18.91%Let’s say the prediction is correct if nobody besides Clinton polls at more than 10% in the RCP average on the date of reckoning.” on 2016-01-30
• NathanMcKnight said “*nobody besides Clinton or Rubio” on 2016-01-30
• ChristianKl estimated 25% on 2016-01-31
• Afforess estimated 15% and said “0.75 (Clinton nomination) * 0.25 (Rubio nomination) = 0.15. ” on 2016-02-03
• NathanMcKnight estimated 50% and said “Updating based on Iowa. ” on 2016-02-03
• Shevek estimated 55% on 2016-02-05
• PseudonymousUser estimated 17% and said “Using Clinton = 0.80, Rubio = 0.22” on 2016-02-22
• Afforess estimated 4% and said ““0.80 (Clinton nomination) * 0.05 (Rubio nomination) = 0.04. ” on 2016-02-28
• PseudonymousUser estimated 6% and said “Updating.” on 2016-02-28
• PseudonymousUser estimated 2% and said “Nope” on 2016-03-10
• CarlShulman estimated 1% on 2016-03-17
• NathanMcKnight estimated 5% on 2016-04-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% and said “Could come out of a contested convention, but no likely. ” on 2016-04-07
• PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2016-04-07
• Afforess estimated 0% on 2016-05-05
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% and said “Rubio is no longer a Republican candidate.” on 2016-05-06
• Andrew MacFie estimated 1% on 2016-06-03
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-10-01.