No terrorist attack in the in the US will kill > 100 people in 2016

Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.

• davidmanheim estimated 95% on 2016-01-28
• daniel74f estimated 90% on 2016-02-06
• equivrel estimated 75% on 2016-02-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 92% on 2016-02-14
• Temeraire estimated 95% on 2016-02-22
• themusicgod1 estimated 90% on 2016-03-20
• mrmrpotatohead estimated 90% and said “http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/terrorism/wrjp255a.html Base rate – 4 such attacks since 1986, giving 4/30 per year. year is 1/4 over, so 0.75*4/30 = 10%.” on 2016-03-23
• two2thehead estimated 100% on 2016-04-07
• Leo estimated 80% on 2016-04-07
• PseudonymousUser estimated 80% on 2016-04-08
• two2thehead said “Posting here now so a more knowledgeable person than me will look at the night club shooting and decide.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Orlando_nightclub_shooting” on 2016-06-13
• two2thehead said “No wait. This doesn’t seem ‘very technically’ related to the shooting. Apologies. I was feeling sad, for lack of a better word, and posted in a prediction that also seemed relevant.” on 2016-06-13
• two2thehead   judged this prediction right on 2017-01-01.