North Korea’s government will survive 2016 without large civil war/revolt

Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.

• davidmanheim estimated 90% on 2016-01-28
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 96% on 2016-01-29
• bnjs estimated 90% on 2016-02-01
• unexpectedEOF estimated 90% on 2016-02-04
• PseudonymousUser estimated 94% on 2016-02-04
• themusicgod1 estimated 60% on 2016-04-01
• two2thehead estimated 95% and said “Wanted to write 80 to 85 percent. First thought was 95. Posting so I can compare and contrast first vs second thought predictions” on 2016-07-11
• two2thehead said “Kim Jong-un has done well in allowing (or more precisely not punishing) rudimentary, low level capitalism in North Korea. That will probably let any tensions abate. Until 2016 is over, at least” on 2016-07-11
• two2thehead said “Related prediction: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/176921” on 2016-07-11
• two2thehead   judged this prediction right on 2017-01-01.