Dow Jones Industrial Average will not fall > 10% over the course of 2016. (It will end above 15,434)

Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Temeraire on 2017-01-01.

• davidmanheim estimated 60% on 2016-01-28
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 10% and said “The Dow has already fallen 10% from 1720 since the start of this year. There is a 40% chance of recession this year, so the odds favour being grizzly.” on 2016-01-29
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 70% on 2016-01-29
• PlacidPlatypus said “I believe the prior is that it should end higher, so even with poor performance so far a 10% drop would be surprising.” on 2016-01-29
• Raahul_Kumar said “DJ is at 16204 today, after a 211 point drop. Only 5 more days of this and it will end up below the target level.” on 2016-02-08
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 3% and said “DJ is at 15,660 today. I expect another bloodbath tomorrow, exactly like the past 5 days.” on 2016-02-11
• Temeraire estimated 60% and said “Assuming the question is not path dependant – it only concerns the end point.” on 2016-02-11
• equivrel estimated 55% on 2016-02-14
• Raahul_Kumar said “The average bear market lasts for 15 months, with stocks declining 32%. The most recent bear market lasted 17 months, from October 2007 to March 2009, and shaved 54% of the Dow Jones. ” on 2016-02-14
• Temeraire   judged this prediction right on 2017-01-01.