Before 2020, Chromium will go closed-source, or Google/Alphabet/Alphabet subsidiary employees will generally stop contributing code to the open-source Chromium project

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-01.

• PseudonymousUser estimated 10% on 2016-02-09
• PseudonymousUser said “open-source = source code available to the general public without agreeing to anything; new commits available within 6 weeks of being authored” on 2016-02-09
• PseudonymousUser said “Chromium is allowed to be renamed” on 2016-02-09
• PseudonymousUser changed the deadline from “on 2020-01-01” and changed their prediction from “Before 2020, Chromium will go closed-source, or Google employees will generally stop contributing code to the open-source Chromium project” on 2016-02-09
• ChristianKl estimated 5% on 2016-02-10
• themusicgod1 estimated 37% and said “I think it’s more likely that they will continue contributing but DRM/EME style “only we can make these changes” will become dominant enough that it’s effectively closed. ” on 2016-02-11
• equivrel estimated 35% on 2016-02-14
• PseudonymousUser estimated 24% on 2016-02-17
• PseudonymousUser said “This was prompted by 1) antivirus companies shipping their own broken versions of Chromium 2) Google possibly wanting to clamp down on adblocking 3) Google getting so far ahead of other browser engines that they can close up development” on 2016-02-17
• PseudonymousUser said “But I don’t see those things outweighing the immediate benefits Google gets from drawing in new contributors via their open-source codebase” on 2016-02-17
• Bruno Parga said “This seems wrong.” on 2020-01-01
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.