Before 2020, Chromium will go closed-source, or Google/Alphabet/Alphabet subsidiary employees will generally stop contributing code to the open-source Chromium project

Created by bobpage on 2016-02-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2020-01-01.

  • bobpage estimated 10% on 2016-02-09
  • bobpage said “open-source = source code available to the general public without agreeing to anything; new commits available within 6 weeks of being authoredon 2016-02-09
  • bobpage said “Chromium is allowed to be renamedon 2016-02-09
  • bobpage changed the deadline from “on 2020-01-01” and changed their prediction from “Before 2020, Chromium will go closed-source, or Google employees will generally stop contributing code to the open-source Chromium project” on 2016-02-09
  • ChristianKl estimated 5% on 2016-02-10
  • themusicgod1 estimated 37% and said “I think it’s more likely that they will continue contributing but DRM/EME style “only we can make these changes” will become dominant enough that it’s effectively closed. on 2016-02-11
  • equivrel estimated 35% on 2016-02-14
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 24% on 2016-02-17
  • bobpage said “This was prompted by 1) antivirus companies shipping their own broken versions of Chromium 2) Google possibly wanting to clamp down on adblocking 3) Google getting so far ahead of other browser engines that they can close up developmenton 2016-02-17
  • bobpage said “But I don’t see those things outweighing the immediate benefits Google gets from drawing in new contributors via their open-source codebaseon 2016-02-17
  • Bruno Parga said “This seems wrong.on 2020-01-01
  • bobpage   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.

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