The British Conservative Party will win the next UK general election with an outright majority of MPs (not conditional on election date)

Created by Waring on 2016-02-11; known on 2020-05-10; judged wrong by Waring on 2017-08-03.

• Waring estimated 65% on 2016-02-11
• splorridge estimated 40% on 2016-02-11
• danielfilan estimated 60% on 2016-02-11
• equivrel estimated 30% on 2016-02-14
• JoshuaZ said “Majority of vote or majority of MPs elected? ” on 2016-02-14
• splorridge said “I assumed it meant majority of MPs elected. I think that’s conventional.” on 2016-02-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 61% on 2016-02-14
• JoshuaZ said “Using splorridge’s interpetation. ” on 2016-02-14
• splorridge estimated 55% and said “Updating based on plans to gerrymander.http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/government-pushes-ahead-with-plans-to-cut-the-number-of-mps-from-650-to-600-a6869656.html” on 2016-02-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 62% and said “Per splorridge. ” on 2016-02-15
• Waring changed the deadline from “on 2020-05-10” and changed their prediction from “The British Conservative Party will win the next UK general election with an outright majority (not conditional on election date)” on 2016-02-22
• Waring said “Clarified: majority of MPs (i.e. will form the executive government).” on 2016-02-22
• themusicgod1 estimated 68% on 2016-06-24
• ejlflop estimated 55% on 2016-06-24
• Reactionaryhistorian estimated 75% on 2016-06-25
• splorridge estimated 88% and said “Updating based on plan for early GE and current polling” on 2017-04-18
• danielfilan estimated 85% on 2017-05-08
• Waring   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-08-03.