A longterm (with humans present at least sixth months) colony will occur on Mars before it occurs on the Earth's moon.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-13; known on 2050-01-01

• JoshuaZ estimated 66% on 2016-02-13
• JoshuaZ said “Date may need to be extended later. ” on 2016-02-13
• equivrel estimated 70% on 2016-02-14
• splorridge estimated 80% on 2016-02-14
• EloiseRosen estimated 50% on 2016-02-15
• mrmrpotatohead estimated 75% on 2016-03-23
• btrettel estimated 10% and said “Establishing a colony on Mars will only be harder than the Moon. There is no reason to not do the Moon first. I also take “colony” to mean more than a dozen people or so, not only a few people.” on 2016-09-19