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Obama will successfully appoint Scalia's appointment.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.

  • JoshuaZ estimated 65% on 2016-02-14
  • InquilineKea estimated 60% on 2016-02-14
  • jesselevine estimated 75% on 2016-02-14
  • Temeraire estimated 65% on 2016-02-14
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 60% on 2016-02-14
  • PseudonymousUser said “If yet another justice dies or retires, and Obama gets only one of two justices replaced, are they Scalia’s replacement?” on 2016-02-14
  • JoshuaZ said “The most reasonable interpretation is that the next justice appointed would be Scalia’s replacement. I’m not sure how it would make sense to judge this if Roberts dies though because he’s the chief which works differently. ” on 2016-02-14
  • JoshuaZ said “For simplicity, can we interpret this as “Obama will successfully appoint another justice before he leaves office”?” on 2016-02-14
  • danielfilan estimated 30% on 2016-02-14
  • Pfft estimated 20% on 2016-02-15
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 37% and said “Updating as per this article http://qz.com/616635/republicans-are-already-vowing-to-block-any-obama-supreme-court-nominee/” on 2016-02-15
  • jesselevine estimated 90% on 2016-02-16
  • jesselevine said “Obama was a professor of constitutional law at University of Chicago law school. He knows it’s his duty, right, requirement of his position ” on 2016-02-16
  • PseudonymousUser said “I don’t see how Obama’s knowledge of the constitution helps us predict the outcome here O_o” on 2016-02-16
  • PseudonymousUser said “In case you didn’t already know, the issue is that congress might not confirm his nomination: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/16/us/politics/more-republicans-say-theyll-block-supreme-court-nomination.html?rref=us” on 2016-02-16
  • davidmanheim estimated 45% on 2016-02-16
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 37% and said “No way. The Republican party has been explicit they won’t permit a replacement and controls the Senate.” on 2016-02-16
  • Afforess estimated 40% and said “There is always the possibility that Obama brokers a deal with the Senate – tit for tat, on some pet issue Republicans find important.” on 2016-02-16
  • silacoid estimated 40% and said “I doubt it, but could happen if they manage to find the right thing to trade for it :/” on 2016-02-16
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 45% on 2016-02-16
  • PlacidPlatypus said “Should the end date maybe be later? I don’t know enough detail to be sure, but there seems like at least an outside chance there could be an appointment in the gap between the new congress and the new president.” on 2016-02-16
  • jesselevine estimated 95% and said “The date must be extended to 01/20/2017. I am very well educated on the issue already, Tapetum, and blocking a moderate nominee that has just been appointed 97, 98 to zero is a guaranteed way to lose the election, senate, and house for the GOP.” on 2016-02-17
  • Medea estimated 70% on 2016-02-17
  • jesselevine estimated 90% on 2016-02-18
  • jesselevine estimated 90% on 2016-02-18
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 60% on 2016-02-20
  • JoshuaZ said “jesselevine, you may be underestimating the current Republican senators general obstinance and may also be overestimating how much most voters care and have long-term memorieis. Look at the last two government shut downs for example. ” on 2016-02-20
  • jesselevine said “I recognize the overwhelming opposition by the GOP, and understand exactly the extent they don’t want this to happen. But the constitution is the constitution, and the GOP preaches that more than anyone. I stand by my prediction, for now. ” on 2016-02-21
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 5% and said “Senate Majority Leader is clear that this will be decided by the next Republican president. https://twitter.com/SenateMajLdr/status/698653325718257664/photo/1” on 2016-02-21
  • jesselevine said “Raahul, the link you cited in your most recent prediction was published days before your FIRST prediction” on 2016-02-22
  • tedks estimated 45% on 2016-02-23
  • sinbad estimated 20% and said “Republicans control the Senate, and they are definitely going to block a Democrat appointment for as long as they can.” on 2016-02-25
  • sinbad estimated 20% and said “Jesselevine, Republicans have been promoting a revisionist interpretation of the Constitution to back themselves up on this. Don’t underestimate their brazenness!” on 2016-02-25
  • kuudes estimated 80% on 2016-02-27
  • Sniffnoy estimated 60% on 2016-02-29
  • themusicgod1 estimated 27% on 2016-03-11
  • two2thehead estimated 25% and said “Loaded die being tossed at this point. Unlikely from my layman POV. And the Republicans are know to cut off their noise to spite their face vis-a-vis obstructing Obama vs upholding the constitution.” on 2016-06-18
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 1% and said “Only 6 months left in the year, halving odds.” on 2016-07-06
  • Dapple estimated 4% and said “The “Leave it to the next president” argument is gaining strength in a more than linear fashion. If it would’ve happened, it would’ve happened already.” on 2016-07-16
  • two2thehead estimated 1% on 2016-07-16
  • elephantower estimated 20% and said “Most of my uncertainty isn’t if Obama will appoint a justice successfully by the end of 2016, but whether the prediction means by the end of 2016 or by the end of the lame-duck session (where is where it’s more likely to occur)” on 2016-07-17
  • Afforess estimated 5% on 2016-10-06
  • Temeraire estimated 0% on 2016-11-30
  • kuudes   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.