Jane Kelly is nominated to replace Scalia.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-02-14; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-02-02.

  • NathanMcKnight estimated 20% on 2016-02-14
  • danielfilan estimated 10% on 2016-02-15
  • JoshuaZ estimated 8% on 2016-02-16
  • danielfilan estimated 40% on 2016-03-03
  • JoshuaZ estimated 34% on 2016-03-03
  • NathanMcKnight said “What caused the turnaround, Joshua?on 2016-03-07
  • JoshuaZ said “Initial estimate was a little over base-rate given her current position. Reports that Kelly was being vetted and some pointers to the political advantages of her nomination causd the increase. on 2016-03-07
  • NathanMcKnight said “Ah, yes. I see she’s been in the news lately. on 2016-03-07
  • two2thehead   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-02-02.
  • two2thehead said ““Trump picks Neil Gorsuch as nominee for Supreme Court” Source: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38813137 on 2017-02-02

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