Jane Kelly is nominated to replace Scalia.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-02-14; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-02-02.

• NathanMcKnight estimated 20% on 2016-02-14
• danielfilan estimated 10% on 2016-02-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 8% on 2016-02-16
• danielfilan estimated 40% on 2016-03-03
• JoshuaZ estimated 34% on 2016-03-03
• NathanMcKnight said “What caused the turnaround, Joshua?” on 2016-03-07
• JoshuaZ said “Initial estimate was a little over base-rate given her current position. Reports that Kelly was being vetted and some pointers to the political advantages of her nomination causd the increase. ” on 2016-03-07
• NathanMcKnight said “Ah, yes. I see she’s been in the news lately. ” on 2016-03-07
• two2thehead   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-02-02.
• two2thehead said ““Trump picks Neil Gorsuch as nominee for Supreme Court” Source: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38813137 ” on 2017-02-02