There will be at least seven more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016

Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.

  • splorridge estimated 42% on 2016-02-14
  • JoshuaZ estimated 51% on 2016-02-14
  • themusicgod1 estimated 42% on 2016-02-16
  • splorridge said “Comparing this to your predictions for “at least six” announcements, it seems you both think exactly six announcements has a probability of only 1%. Why is six less likely than either five or seven?on 2016-02-16
  • splorridge said “Oh, I think I made a mistake in understanding your other predictions. Feel free to ignore me.on 2016-02-16
  • themusicgod1 estimated 30% on 2016-04-26
  • splorridge estimated 29% on 2016-06-16
  • splorridge estimated 16% on 2016-11-09
  • splorridge   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.

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