There will be at least seven more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016

Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.

• splorridge estimated 42% on 2016-02-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 51% on 2016-02-14
• themusicgod1 estimated 42% on 2016-02-16
• splorridge said “Comparing this to your predictions for “at least six” announcements, it seems you both think exactly six announcements has a probability of only 1%. Why is six less likely than either five or seven?” on 2016-02-16
• splorridge said “Oh, I think I made a mistake in understanding your other predictions. Feel free to ignore me.” on 2016-02-16
• themusicgod1 estimated 30% on 2016-04-26
• splorridge estimated 29% on 2016-06-16
• splorridge estimated 16% on 2016-11-09
• splorridge   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.