Eurozone sovereign debt crisis by 2022.

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-16; known on 2022-12-25

• Raahul_Kumar estimated 100% on 2016-02-16
• Raahul_Kumar said “Still counts if it is the USA that triggers it, as with last timehttps://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/sovereign-debt-crisis-coming-back-163711965.html” on 2016-02-16
• splorridge estimated 82% on 2016-02-16
• PseudonymousUser estimated 93% on 2016-02-21
• JoshuaZ said “Defined how? ” on 2016-02-21
• Raahul_Kumar said “No need to define, it will be in the news everywhere, same as with the last one. I’ ve already seperately predicted debt defaults, that will be the most reliable indicator.” on 2016-02-21
• PseudonymousUser said “Raahul, do you want the definition to be broader than actual defaults? If so, we could go with “there is a eurozone country whose bond spreads being 1000 basis points above US Treasuries.”” on 2016-02-22
• PseudonymousUser said “There was a paper that found that cutoff to be pretty good indicator: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2004/wp0444.pdf (see pages 9, and 14-16).” on 2016-02-22
• Raahul_Kumar said “https://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb2.ReWEB;RWSESSIONID=997B0E1CD05A9390891B0267B4AA4E15.srv-tc2-dbr-com?rwobj=cdscalc2.Start.class&rwnode=DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD%24NAVIGATION&rwsite=DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD&cdsRecRate=60” on 2016-02-22
• Raahul_Kumar said “CDS spread at the same level as the 2008 Crisis would be good enough.” on 2016-02-22
• themusicgod1 said ““there is a eurozone country whose bond spreads being 1000 basis points above US Treasuries.”…what if the US has a sovereign debt crisis? That metric suddenly won’t work.” on 2016-02-22
• PseudonymousUser said “Good points. I guess we’re going with CDS spreads then.” on 2016-03-06
• Raahul_Kumar said “Tape: CDS spreads at the same level as the last crisis, please, for at least 5 EU countries!” on 2016-03-06