Zika will be found not to be the (sole, proximate) cause of microencephaly for the recent cases in Brazil
- davidmanheim estimated 25% on 2016-02-17
- davidmanheim estimated 15% and said “The CDC has said that they are getting more and more convinced.” on 2016-02-18
- Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 13% on 2016-02-18
- jesselevine estimated 5% and said “AFAIK the evidence is fairly clear ” on 2016-02-18
- davidmanheim estimated 2% on 2016-02-29
- brslvrsl estimated 75% on 2016-02-29
- jesselevine judged this prediction wrong on 2016-04-13.
- jesselevine said “Confirmed link by CDC 04/13” on 2016-04-13
- davidmanheim judged this prediction unknown on 2017-01-03.
- davidmanheim said “SOLE cause – this is still very unclear. It is definitely a proximate cause, but the data in other countries is showing a much lower rate.” on 2017-01-03
- davidmanheim said “See: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28039355 for reasons to think Dengue may be partially at fault.” on 2017-01-03
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