Zika will be found not to be the (sole, proximate) cause of microencephaly for the recent cases in Brazil

Created by davidmanheim on 2016-02-17; known on 2017-01-01; judged unknown by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03.

  • davidmanheim estimated 25% on 2016-02-17
  • davidmanheim estimated 15% and said “The CDC has said that they are getting more and more convinced.on 2016-02-18
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 13% on 2016-02-18
  • jesselevine estimated 5% and said “AFAIK the evidence is fairly clear on 2016-02-18
  • davidmanheim estimated 2% on 2016-02-29
  • brslvrsl estimated 75% on 2016-02-29
  • jesselevine   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-04-13.
  • jesselevine said “Confirmed link by CDC 04/13on 2016-04-13
  • davidmanheim   judged this prediction unknown on 2017-01-03.
  • davidmanheim said “SOLE cause – this is still very unclear. It is definitely a proximate cause, but the data in other countries is showing a much lower rate.on 2017-01-03
  • davidmanheim said “See: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28039355 for reasons to think Dengue may be partially at fault.on 2017-01-03

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