A terrorist attack or series of terrorist attacks ordered by Kim Jong Un on South Korean & possibly Japanese targets including public transportation, power plants and on individual disidents or critics will happen some time in 2016 – possibly within 90d.

Created by amexfireplace on 2016-02-23; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-03.

• amexfireplace estimated 67% on 2016-02-23
• amexfireplace changed the deadline from “on 2016-11-30” and changed their prediction from “A terrorist attack or series of terrorist attacks ordered by Kim Jong Un on South Korean & possibly Japanese targets including public transportation, power plants and on individual disidents or critics will happen some time in 2016 – possibly within the n” on 2016-02-23
• PseudonymousUser said “If an attack happens, you might have trouble being certain whether it was ordered by Kim Jong Un, in the face of denials. Also, is this Right only if it includes South Korean targets, or Right if at least one of South Korean or Japan?” on 2016-02-23
• xplkqlkcassia estimated 10% on 2016-02-24
• sinbad estimated 3% and said “It’s hard to know what Kim might do, but in general powerful people are unlikely to jeopardise their security like this – he would be inviting war. We would need strong evidence that he was unhinged to make a higher estimate.” on 2016-02-25
• equivrel estimated 2% on 2016-03-01
• elephantower estimated 10% and said “seems like a bad strategy, and not in KJU’s MO, but NK is unpredictable (and they did use that computer virus to disrupt air traffic)” on 2016-07-15
• themusicgod1 estimated 44% on 2016-07-15
• two2thehead   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-12-03.