Exactly three candidates will get greater than 10% of the popular vote in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

Created by HonoreDB on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.

• HonoreDB estimated 30% on 2016-02-29
• themusicgod1 estimated 56% on 2016-03-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 13% on 2016-03-01
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 9% on 2016-03-01
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 14% and said “Oops” on 2016-03-01
• mrmrpotatohead estimated 5% and said “Pr(trump-is-nominee) = 0.61Pr(3rd-party-run|trump-is-nominee) = 0.12Pr(3rd party-gets-over10%) = 0.9=6%” on 2016-03-23
• mrmrpotatohead estimated 6% and said ““Pr(trump-is-nominee) = 0.61Pr(3rd-party-run|trump-is-nominee) = 0.12Pr(3rd party-gets-over10%) = 0.9=6%” less than a minute ago” on 2016-03-23
• jesselevine said “[My old AP stats teacher] has joined the server…. ^” on 2016-03-23
• themusicgod1   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-11-09.
• themusicgod1 said “it scrolled off the page but http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/ claimed <5% to johnson” on 2016-11-09