Paul Graham: Bitcoin may have been created by a government

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

• RandomThinker estimated 31% on 2013-04-25
• RandomThinker said “Not that plausible but stranger things have happened. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5547423” on 2013-04-25
• Cy Fleming estimated 10% on 2013-04-25
• Tuxedage said “How will we falsify this prediction?” on 2013-04-25
• Jayson Virissimo said “Perhaps change to something like “NYT or WSJ will run an article claiming Bitcoin was created by one or more governments before 2020.”” on 2013-04-25
• RandomThinker said “@Jayson we can use that as a test, except any credible media is ok. I don’t want to change title though because I want to tie it to Paul Graham, and that’s what he said.” on 2013-04-26
• andrevan estimated 5% on 2013-04-27
• hedges estimated 2% on 2013-04-27
• Tuxedage estimated 5% and said “Based on the above criteria.” on 2013-04-28
• ashrewdmint estimated 2% and said “What is this I don’t even” on 2013-04-30
• ShIxtan estimated 5% on 2013-04-30
• petfold estimated 2% on 2013-05-07
• Samm estimated 1% and said “Very unlikely. Which goverment would have a motive?” on 2013-05-09
• PseudonymousUser estimated 2% on 2013-11-14
• themusicgod1 estimated 7% on 2016-04-15
• two2thehead estimated 1% and said “Not a government project.” on 2016-05-24
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.