Paul Graham: Bitcoin may have been created by a government

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

  • RandomThinker estimated 31% on 2013-04-25
  • RandomThinker said “Not that plausible but stranger things have happened. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5547423on 2013-04-25
  • Cy Fleming estimated 10% on 2013-04-25
  • Tuxedage said “How will we falsify this prediction?on 2013-04-25
  • Jayson Virissimo said “Perhaps change to something like “NYT or WSJ will run an article claiming Bitcoin was created by one or more governments before 2020.”on 2013-04-25
  • RandomThinker said “@Jayson we can use that as a test, except any credible media is ok. I don’t want to change title though because I want to tie it to Paul Graham, and that’s what he said.on 2013-04-26
  • andrevan estimated 5% on 2013-04-27
  • hedges estimated 2% on 2013-04-27
  • Tuxedage estimated 5% and said “Based on the above criteria.on 2013-04-28
  • ashrewdmint estimated 2% and said “What is this I don’t evenon 2013-04-30
  • ShIxtan estimated 5% on 2013-04-30
  • petfold estimated 2% on 2013-05-07
  • Samm estimated 1% and said “Very unlikely. Which goverment would have a motive?on 2013-05-09
  • bobpage estimated 2% on 2013-11-14
  • themusicgod1 estimated 7% on 2016-04-15
  • two2thehead estimated 1% and said “Not a government project.on 2016-05-24
  • Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.

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