PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

I will not get SJS from modafinil

Created by RoryS on 2016-03-10; known on 2017-10-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-22.

  • RoryS estimated 100% on 2016-03-10
  • EloiseRosen estimated 100% and said “I find it excruciating that predictionbook doesn’t allow decimal points, but here we are.” on 2016-03-10
  • JoshuaZ estimated 100% on 2016-03-10
  • JoshuaZ said “Estimate based on base rate. ” on 2016-03-10
  • jesselevine estimated 100% and said “Never thought about it until now, but I feel like predictionbook is a typical modafinil user activity. ” on 2016-03-10
  • themusicgod1 estimated 51% on 2016-03-11
  • Temeraire estimated 100% and said “PB allows numbers between 0 and 1%, but not between 99% and 100%. Maybe in future we should flip the sign on the statement to allow people to answer honestly?” on 2016-03-11
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 99% on 2016-03-13
  • Andrew MacFie estimated 99% on 2016-03-13
  • ioannes estimated 99% on 2016-03-22
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 100% on 2016-04-07
  • Baeboo estimated 100% on 2017-09-18
  • ioannes said “Update?” on 2017-10-16
  • PseudonymousUser said “I guess he’s dead ;)” on 2019-03-08
  • PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-22.