Gary Johnson to get > 5% of the vote in 2016

Created by InquilineKea on 2016-03-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.

  • InquilineKea estimated 40% on 2016-03-11
  • themusicgod1 estimated 3% on 2016-03-11
  • joehsu estimated 2% on 2016-03-13
  • two2thehead estimated 2% and said “The shenanigans Trump engage in almost ensure that a third party candidate won’t get a lot of votes imo. on 2016-05-14
  • InquilineKea estimated 59% on 2016-05-31
  • two2thehead said “Popular voteHillary Clinton – 48.7 percentDonald Trump – 42.2 percentGary Johnson – 7.7 percenthttp://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/8:27 PMSunday, July 3, 2016Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) on 2016-07-03
  • two2thehead said “@ InquilineKea. I readily admit to ‘phoning in’ my prediction. This race just got interesting. :-Don 2016-07-03
  • Dapple estimated 75% and said “#NeverTrump and #NeverHillary are too strong of trends, and I know there are people from both camps that also don’t like the idea of not voting. I see the total 3rd party vote getting ~10%. My only pessimism is if other 3rd parties dilute it.on 2016-07-14
  • predictit estimated 70% on 2016-07-14
  • Andrew MacFie estimated 40% on 2016-08-02
  • btrettel estimated 70% and said “Based on using a 3 point trapezoidal approximation to the approximate probability density function 538 displays.on 2016-08-28
  • Dapple said “I’m thinking my earlier pessimism regarding another 3rd party, specifically Egg McMuffin, splitting the vote is looking to be well founded.on 2016-11-05
  • two2thehead said “Wikipedia has Johnson / Weld with 3.28% of the vote.on 2017-01-01
  • two2thehead   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.

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