There will be a relevant (>10% vote in any election) third political party in the US before the end of 2018.

Created by artir on 2016-03-12; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by artir on 2018-12-31.

• artir estimated 24% on 2016-03-12
• themusicgod1 estimated 25% on 2016-03-12
• PseudonymousUser said “10% of the popular or electoral vote?” on 2016-03-12
• jesselevine said “Bob raises a good point. We dont want a third party if it lowers the chance of reaching 270” on 2016-03-13
• PlacidPlatypus said “I think this is way too broad. At least one independent hits 10% for governor or senate election pretty much every election cycle, does that count?” on 2016-03-15
• PlacidPlatypus said “I think you should specify 10% in a presidential election, or maybe also count 10% over all races for House or Senate in a given election.” on 2016-03-15
• sole21000 estimated 4% and said “For popular vote” on 2016-03-16
• artir estimated 50% and said “The Libertarian Party would count, if they do get >10% votes in the upcoming election.” on 2016-03-24
• jesselevine said “That’s a yay high number, considering history….” on 2016-03-25
• artir   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-12-31.