Third party candidate gets more votes than Trump.
- NathanMcKnight estimated 20% on 2016-03-22
- splorridge estimated 10% on 2016-03-23
- themusicgod1 estimated 11% on 2016-03-23
- mrmrpotatohead said “Is this conditional on a third party run?Or is the probability that a third party runs AND gets more votes?” on 2016-03-24
- PlacidPlatypus said “@mrmrpotatohead Third parties pretty much always run so I don’t think there’s much need to distinguish. I would assume it’s the AND.” on 2016-03-24
- PlacidPlatypus said “Although I am curious, if he’s not nominated would this be right, wrong, or withdrawn?” on 2016-03-24
- NathanMcKnight said “The prediction should be Trump is nominated AND a third party gets more votes. ” on 2016-03-24
- PlacidPlatypus estimated 8% and said “I’m pretty sure you can change the prediction’s wording if you think it needs it.” on 2016-03-24
- jesselevine estimated 0% on 2016-03-25
- splorridge judged this prediction wrong on 2016-11-09.
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