Third party candidate gets more votes than Trump.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-22; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.

  • NathanMcKnight estimated 20% on 2016-03-22
  • splorridge estimated 10% on 2016-03-23
  • themusicgod1 estimated 11% on 2016-03-23
  • mrmrpotatohead said “Is this conditional on a third party run?Or is the probability that a third party runs AND gets more votes?on 2016-03-24
  • PlacidPlatypus said “@mrmrpotatohead Third parties pretty much always run so I don’t think there’s much need to distinguish. I would assume it’s the AND.on 2016-03-24
  • PlacidPlatypus said “Although I am curious, if he’s not nominated would this be right, wrong, or withdrawn?on 2016-03-24
  • NathanMcKnight said “The prediction should be Trump is nominated AND a third party gets more votes. on 2016-03-24
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 8% and said “I’m pretty sure you can change the prediction’s wording if you think it needs it.on 2016-03-24
  • jesselevine estimated 0% on 2016-03-25
  • splorridge   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-11-09.

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