Third party candidate gets more votes than Trump.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-22; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.

• NathanMcKnight estimated 20% on 2016-03-22
• splorridge estimated 10% on 2016-03-23
• themusicgod1 estimated 11% on 2016-03-23
• mrmrpotatohead said “Is this conditional on a third party run?Or is the probability that a third party runs AND gets more votes?” on 2016-03-24
• PlacidPlatypus said “@mrmrpotatohead Third parties pretty much always run so I don’t think there’s much need to distinguish. I would assume it’s the AND.” on 2016-03-24
• PlacidPlatypus said “Although I am curious, if he’s not nominated would this be right, wrong, or withdrawn?” on 2016-03-24
• NathanMcKnight said “The prediction should be Trump is nominated AND a third party gets more votes. ” on 2016-03-24
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 8% and said “I’m pretty sure you can change the prediction’s wording if you think it needs it.” on 2016-03-24
• jesselevine estimated 0% on 2016-03-25
• splorridge   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-11-09.