Scotland will have another independence referendum and the result will be YES.

Created by splorridge on 2016-03-23; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-02.

  • splorridge estimated 70% on 2016-03-23
  • splorridge said “Date chosen somewhat arbitrarily. An implicit assumption of the prediction is that the Scottish referendum will be a reaction to the result of the EU referendum.on 2016-03-23
  • splorridge said “If we learn before 1/1/2020 that there will be a Scottish independence referendum but it will happen after 1/1/2020 then I will change the date of the prediction to the day after the referendum.on 2016-03-23
  • splorridge said “If it gets to 1/1/2020 and no Scottish independence referendum has been planned, I will judge the prediction false.on 2016-03-23
  • themusicgod1 estimated 34% and said “The first part is plausible, but I suspect it’s going to be a close referendum, in that case, too close to call decisively for YES. I assume claim judged after first post brexit referendum.on 2016-03-23
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 90% and said “Scottish Independence party has stated referendum if UK leaves EU, so 2nd part is 100%.UK wanting to leave the EU is ahead of wanting to stay currently.on 2016-03-27
  • Waring estimated 45% on 2016-04-01
  • Temeraire estimated 20% and said “50% chance of referendum, 40% chance Scotland votes to leave . Might have been better to have these as two separate predictions?on 2016-04-01
  • splorridge estimated 45% and said “Updating based on recent polling. 2016-04-25
  • ejlflop estimated 50% on 2016-06-16
  • two2thehead estimated 25% and said “Assuming 50 percent probability for both outcomes.on 2016-06-16
  • ejlflop estimated 60% on 2016-06-24
  • splorridge changed the deadline from “on 2020-01-01” and changed their prediction from “Conditional on the UK voting to LEAVE the EU in the upcoming referendum, Scotland will have another independence referendum and the result will be YES.” on 2016-06-24
  • elephantower estimated 70% on 2016-06-27
  • Bruno Parga estimated 48% and said “I think it is possible they will negotiate independence through the Scottish and British Parliaments, without another referendum. If that happens, this prediction evaluates to false, in my view.on 2016-06-27
  • splorridge said “Yes, I think you’re right that it will evaluate to false, although that isn’t a possibility I’d considered. However, referendums seem to be so much in fashion atm that the SNP would get a massive bollocking if they went without one.on 2016-06-27
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 19% on 2016-06-27
  • JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2016-06-28
  • splorridge estimated 30% on 2017-09-19
  • davatk estimated 9% on 2018-04-26
  • kiimberlie estimated 5% on 2018-05-16
  • Bruno Parga said “Since Brexit has been delayed by a lot, there could be genuine uncertainty by 2020-01-01, so I propose changing the resolution date to 2021-01-01.on 2019-07-05
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-02.

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