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AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2023

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2023-01-01

  • JoshuaZ estimated 88% on 2016-03-23
  • JoshuaZ said “See also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/177723” on 2016-03-23
  • themusicgod1 estimated 92% on 2016-03-23
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 5% and said “None of the existing bots uses neural net algorithms. AlphaGo is unlikely, I repeat again assuming that AlphaGo does not come. If AlphaGo is coming then 100% chance.” on 2016-03-24
  • JoshuaZ said “I’m certainly intending to take into account the same Google group using methods similar to AlphaGo in my estimate. They said explicitly that Brood War is on their target list. ” on 2016-03-24
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 80% on 2016-03-24
  • ioannes estimated 60% on 2016-03-26
  • Raahul_Kumar said “DeepMind co-founder Demis Hassabis “We’re only interested in things to the extent that they are on the main track of our research program. So the aim of DeepMind is not just to beat games, fun and exciting though that is,” That is a NO. ” on 2016-03-27
  • Raahul_Kumar said “Automation 2000 scrips today, minus any AI are already unbeatable because of speed. 500 APM limit is needed for the human to stand a chance.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMCf4QVpQFg” on 2016-03-27
  • bitbatbot estimated 60% on 2016-04-03
  • JoshuaZ said “Raahul do you have a citation/source for the automated script claim? Also, what is the point of the video you linked to? That’s a highly artificial situation in SCII, not Brood War. ” on 2016-04-03
  • JoshuaZ estimated 85% and said “Reducing confidence per failure of https://predictionbook.com/predictions/177723 ” on 2019-01-01
  • Medea estimated 85% on 2020-01-09
  • PlacidPlatypus said “I have really mixed feelings on this one. Current top bots are still well behind top humans. But on the “just one game” criterion it’s already possible for a top pro to lose a game on an off day or not playing that seriously.” on 2020-10-21
  • PlacidPlatypus said “Like if a top 10 pro is screwing around on stream one day, loads up the SCHNAIL client against Stardust, plays some troll build while chatting with viewers or whatever, and loses, does that count?” on 2020-10-21
  • JoshuaZ estimated 64% and said “Updating per lack of apparent progress. ” on 2020-10-22
  • JoshuaZ said “Placid, I was intending for a more serious game than that, but the point that this isn’t well-defined is a valid one. ” on 2020-10-22