A terrorist incident involving the death of 1 or more Americans occurs before year end on American soil (excludes perpetrators).

Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by bobpage on 2016-06-13.

  • jesselevine estimated 42% on 2016-04-01
  • tedks estimated 80% on 2016-04-02
  • equivrel estimated 70% on 2016-04-02
  • PipFoweraker estimated 65% on 2016-04-03
  • kuudes said “How will terrorist incident be understood in this question? (esp given low bodycount)on 2016-04-03
  • jesselevine said “A crime that is either claimed by or linked to a terrorist organization. on 2016-04-03
  • JoshuaZ said “That’s a very broad definition. Often organizations make claims that they did disasters. For example multiple terrorist groups claimed responsibiltiy for TWA 800.on 2016-04-04
  • jesselevine said “The only instances that I would deem eligible for this prediction that have happened in recent years are San Bernardino and Boston Marathon. on 2016-04-04
  • tedks said “Also Dylan Roof and similar… he had as many links to “terrorist organizations” as the San Bernardino shooters.on 2016-04-06
  • two2thehead estimated 80% and said “Underestimating it even though I think it would be in the nineties. I am assuming the 2015 San Bernadino attack to be mold of any future terrorist attack. Lone wolf/wolves who have no obvious connection/training by terrorists.on 2016-04-06
  • themusicgod1 estimated 86% and said “Long term trends say the odds of this are very good.on 2016-04-12
  • two2thehead said “Posting here so a more knowledgeable person can look and decide regarding the night club shooting.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Orlando_nightclub_shootingon 2016-06-13
  • two2thehead said “Regarding my prediction + probability, I’m almost certain that I am right. :-(on 2016-06-13
  • bobpage said “shooter “called 911 before the shooting and swore allegiance to Islamic State”; Obama’s speech included “act of terror” when referring to thison 2016-06-13
  • bobpage   judged this prediction right on 2016-06-13.

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