Ted Cruz will be linked to a sex scandal before year end.

Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.

  • jesselevine estimated 50% on 2016-04-03
  • jesselevine said “Referencing the current gag order on Deborah Palfrey’s documentson 2016-04-03
  • JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2016-04-04
  • brslvrsl said “How to define sex scandal?on 2016-04-04
  • jesselevine said “Sex scandal: (noun) a sex scandalon 2016-04-04
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 10% and said “He doesn’t strike me as the type to screw up like that. (As opposed to someone like Bill Clinton, Trump, Anthony Wiener, etc.)on 2016-04-06
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “Jesse, does anything about the gag order relate to Cruz specifically?on 2016-04-06
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “Or do we only know that it “pertains to the 2016 election” (as per her attorney’s comments)?on 2016-04-06
  • jesselevine said “The reason my prediction is so drastically high is because lawyer claims release would have a dramatic impact on the race, and I can’t think of any other candidate more likely than Ted Cruz on 2016-04-06
  • ioannes estimated 8% on 2016-04-06
  • two2thehead estimated 99% and said “I know it’s bad form to rely on gut hunches on LW, but I stand by my ability to read faces. Sex scandal is defined, for me, as adultery by Ted Cruz while he was married to his wife.on 2016-04-06
  • Afforess estimated 33% on 2016-04-08
  • Dapple estimated 7% and said “I don’t really anticipate any new information being added to this market by 2017, which is the only reason I expect it to default to false. on 2016-07-16
  • two2thehead estimated 1% on 2016-07-16
  • two2thehead said “Related prediction. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178843on 2016-07-16
  • two2thehead said “I had assumed that a TC sex scandal would come out before the end of 2016. I was assuming that the republican convention would be a brokered convention that the party would choose. I then assumed that it would come out that TC committed adultery.on 2016-07-16
  • two2thehead said “No contested convention = no likelihood of TC and adultery being a topic = no likelihood of it coming out.on 2016-07-16
  • two2thehead said “I’m taking the John Edwards adultery issue being released by IIRC the same newspaper as my prior.on 2016-07-16
  • two2thehead said “I admit that it is a long shot. But I am willing to take the ‘hit’ on me being wrong as a learning lesson.on 2016-07-16
  • elephantower estimated 10% on 2016-07-17
  • Michael Dickens estimated 10% on 2016-07-31
  • two2thehead   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.
  • two2thehead said “Over confidence by me. Let the wrong judgment provide feedback for me to improve.on 2017-01-01

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