Until the end of 2037, at no point in time will a person elected or otherwise selected by a political party, other than the Republican and Democratic parties, hold the office of President of the United States.

Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-04-09; known on 2037-12-31

• Bruno Parga estimated 67% on 2016-04-09
• Bruno Parga changed the deadline from “on 2037-12-31” and changed their prediction from “Until the end of 2037, at no point in time will a person elected or otherwise selected by a political party, other than the Republican and Democratic parties, hold the office of President of the United States. Furthermore, candidates elected or otherwi” on 2016-04-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 54% on 2016-04-09
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 85% and said “I would recommend rewording this as no “person not nominated by at least one of the Republican or Democratic party” or something like that, since I believe a candidate can be nominated by more than one party.” on 2016-04-11
• PlacidPlatypus said “To give some base rate perspective, it’s been over 150 years since a president not from one of those two parties has been elected.” on 2016-04-11
• Bruno Parga said “PlacidPlatypus, thanks for your suggestion. I still prefer my original wording, because the actual voting by the electors makes no reference to parties and because each of the different state elections can have different rules regarding parties.” on 2016-04-12
• NickN estimated 45% on 2020-08-19
• Deepak estimated 75% on 2020-08-21
• Bruno Parga estimated 80% on 2020-11-08