2016 New York Democratic Primary isn't a blowout (i.e. margin of victory is < 15%)

Created by ioannes on 2016-04-14; known on 2016-04-21; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-04-21.

• ioannes estimated 90% on 2016-04-14
• jesselevine estimated 94% and said “on the contingency that nobody mysteriously drops out/dies/assassinated ” on 2016-04-14
• themusicgod1 estimated 58% on 2016-04-14
• splorridge estimated 80% on 2016-04-14
• HonoreDB estimated 63% and said “fivethirtyeight projects 13.5% margin, and I’m expecting Sanders to slightly underperform due to New York’s super-closed primary.” on 2016-04-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 54% on 2016-04-19
• ioannes   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-04-21.
• splorridge said “brutal” on 2016-04-22
• jesselevine said “Ouch my average” on 2016-04-22