2016 New York Democratic Primary isn't a blowout (i.e. margin of victory is < 15%)

Created by ioannes on 2016-04-14; known on 2016-04-21; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-04-21.

  • ioannes estimated 90% on 2016-04-14
  • jesselevine estimated 94% and said “on the contingency that nobody mysteriously drops out/dies/assassinated on 2016-04-14
  • themusicgod1 estimated 58% on 2016-04-14
  • splorridge estimated 80% on 2016-04-14
  • HonoreDB estimated 63% and said “fivethirtyeight projects 13.5% margin, and I’m expecting Sanders to slightly underperform due to New York’s super-closed primary.on 2016-04-19
  • JoshuaZ estimated 54% on 2016-04-19
  • ioannes   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-04-21.
  • splorridge said “brutalon 2016-04-22
  • jesselevine said “Ouch my averageon 2016-04-22

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