If the Republican convention goes to the second ballot, Ted Cruz will secure the nomination

Created by ioannes on 2016-04-16; known on 2016-08-01

• ioannes estimated 65% on 2016-04-16
• PlacidPlatypus said “If it doesn’t, will this prediction be withdrawn?” on 2016-04-19
• PlacidPlatypus said “I’m a little leery of conditional predictions because I’ve got a couple expired ones lying around that the creator hasn’t done anything with.” on 2016-04-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 74% on 2016-04-19
• davidmanheim estimated 60% and said “I think the “will of the people” argument is stronger than people credit. Selecting Cruz will be picking the loser, they’d be better off letting Trump be kingmaker – perhaps with a few slots (Sec. State?) for his people.” on 2016-04-21
• themusicgod1 estimated 10% on 2016-06-10
• elephantower estimated 70% on 2016-07-14
• elephantower said “time to withdraw this prediction as the convention will not go to the 2nd ballot” on 2016-07-16
• Bruno Parga said “Perhaps there should be an option to mark a prediction as “condition unfulfilled”, alongside “right” and “wrong”.” on 2016-07-20
• ioannes withdrew the prediction on 2016-08-01