1 year continuous human habitation of the moon

Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-18; known on 2025-06-22

• Paul.David.Carr estimated 70% on 2016-04-18
• themusicgod1 estimated 42% on 2016-04-18
• sflicht estimated 10% on 2016-04-18
• sflicht estimated 5% on 2016-04-18
• sflicht estimated 10% on 2016-04-18
• JoshuaZ estimated 3% on 2016-04-18
• kuudes said “sflicht: mind you that predictionbook calculates all your predictions, not just the last one” on 2016-04-19
• splorridge estimated 4% on 2016-04-19
• sflicht said “@kuudes, it is free to calculate as it pleases. I reserve the right to change my mind as often as I see fit. I do wish predictionbook would make it easier to extract data about my prediction en masse, though, so that I can analyze them as I see fit.” on 2016-04-19
• jesselevine said “relevant predictionbook.com/predictions/177662” on 2016-04-20
• two2thehead estimated 40% and said “Bit vague. Does it refer to one or more persons being on the moon for 365 days continuous. Or 1 person a month and just getting replaced with a new one every month for 12 months? Not dying. Just getting tagged out like wrestlers.” on 2016-04-20
• NathanMcKnight estimated 10% on 2016-04-22
• brslvrsl estimated 5% on 2016-04-25
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 4% on 2016-04-28
• mbohler62 estimated 5% on 2016-04-30
• PipFoweraker estimated 15% and said “Interpreting as substitutions-OK – looking for continuous inhabitation like Antarctic research stations – min.staff = 1.” on 2016-05-16
• NickN estimated 0% on 2020-08-16
• Paul.David.Carr estimated 50% on 2022-02-28
• n99 estimated 0% on 2022-10-28