SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021

Created by sflicht on 2016-04-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2021-01-02.

  • sflicht estimated 80% on 2016-04-28
  • sflicht changed the deadline from “on 2022-01-01on 2016-04-28
  • themusicgod1 estimated 62% on 2016-04-28
  • JoshuaZ estimated 64% on 2016-04-28
  • Paul.David.Carr estimated 73% on 2016-04-29
  • mbohler62 estimated 75% on 2016-04-30
  • Waring estimated 45% on 2016-05-02
  • trishume estimated 80% on 2016-05-09
  • PipFoweraker estimated 85% on 2016-05-16
  • penten estimated 90% on 2016-12-01
  • JoshuaZ estimated 61% on 2016-12-01
  • atomicspacemann estimated 65% and said “I would include a ‘failed mission’ post ejection, or simple test payload. ie. “Evidence of SpaceX hardware near Mars before 2021, even if inert when it gets there.”on 2017-01-23
  • Paul.David.Carr estimated 68% and said “Does a landing count?on 2017-05-15
  • sflicht   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-01-02.

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