SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021

Created by sflicht on 2016-04-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2021-01-02.

• sflicht estimated 80% on 2016-04-28
• sflicht changed the deadline from “on 2022-01-01” on 2016-04-28
• themusicgod1 estimated 62% on 2016-04-28
• JoshuaZ estimated 64% on 2016-04-28
• Paul.David.Carr estimated 73% on 2016-04-29
• mbohler62 estimated 75% on 2016-04-30
• Waring estimated 45% on 2016-05-02
• trishume estimated 80% on 2016-05-09
• PipFoweraker estimated 85% on 2016-05-16
• penten estimated 90% on 2016-12-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 61% on 2016-12-01
• atomicspacemann estimated 65% and said “I would include a ‘failed mission’ post ejection, or simple test payload. ie. “Evidence of SpaceX hardware near Mars before 2021, even if inert when it gets there.”” on 2017-01-23
• Paul.David.Carr estimated 68% and said “Does a landing count?” on 2017-05-15
• sflicht   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-01-02.