A supernova in the Miky Way will first be detected by it's neutrino and gravitational wave emission, prior to it's brightening allowing observation by optical telescopes.

Created by AdamSmith on 2016-04-30; known on 2025-01-01

• AdamSmith estimated 90% on 2016-04-30
• Paul.David.Carr estimated 10% and said “Taking this literally, not too sure about the gravitational waves.” on 2016-04-30
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% and said “Major conjunction here since the Milky Way only has about one supernova a every fifty years or so, ” on 2016-05-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 11% and said “Updating based on time passed.” on 2021-04-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 7% and said “Actually bad update. About half time gone, so should reduce accordingly, but slightly up because better neutrino + grav observing.” on 2021-04-04