Trump to back legalizing recreational and/or medical marijuana during 2016 election.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-11-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-16.

• NathanMcKnight estimated 60% on 2016-05-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 32% on 2016-05-04
• Medea estimated 30% on 2016-05-05
• ioannes estimated 10% and said “Given marijuana’s history as an “otherizing” drug and its association with hispanics (https://youtu.be/9A_qzEQr-wM?t=142), I would be surprised if Trump endorsed legalization.” on 2016-05-06
• RoryS estimated 44% on 2016-05-06
• EloiseRosen estimated 30% on 2016-05-08
• NathanMcKnight changed the deadline from “on 2016-11-16” and changed their prediction from “Trump to back legalizing marijuana.” on 2016-05-11
• two2thehead said “Define ‘back’. The problem I have with The Donald is that he is so all over the place it’s tough to pin him down. See http://www.thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/279576-trump-muslim-ban-just-a-suggestion.” on 2016-05-11
• NathanMcKnight said “two2thehead: I think at some point, he’s likely to say pretty clearly “we’re going to legalize marijuana”. He might walk it back a little later, but at some point he’ll back it.” on 2016-05-12
• two2thehead said “http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/trump-everything-i-say-suggestion-223157” on 2016-05-13
• two2thehead estimated 10% and said “Alright. I get your point. :-) After thinking about it I’m going to go with possible but unlikely. He has to get the party behind him and deviating from the ‘norm’ will cause problems in the general.” on 2016-05-13
• elephantower estimated 40% and said “He says many things that don’t seem coherent with his espoused ideology (for example, he initially supported taking in a decent number Syrian refugees as a presidential candidate), so it seems very possible” on 2016-07-10
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-09-02
• PseudonymousUser said “We have two quotes during the campaign suggesting that Trump is in favor of legal medical marijuana http://www.ontheissues.org/Celeb/Donald_Trump_Drugs.htm” on 2016-11-16
• two2thehead said “https://www.mpp.org/2016-presidential-candidates/” on 2016-11-16
• two2thehead said ““I’d say [regulating marijuana] is bad. Medical marijuana is another thing, but I think it’s bad and I feel strongly about that.” on 2016-11-16
• two2thehead said “ [Moderator: “What about the states’ right aspect of it?”] If they vote for it, they vote for it… But I think, medical marijuana, 100%.” C-SPAN, June 23, 2015” on 2016-11-16
• two2thehead   judged this prediction right on 2016-11-16.
• two2thehead said “bangs head on desk Well, the only good thing about my correct-prediction ratio going down is that this is feedback to improve. I want to become stronger! http://lesswrong.com/lw/h8/tsuyoku_naritai_i_want_to_become_stronger/” on 2016-11-16