I seriously engage with Michael's population ethics post (read closely, understand the logical argument, possibly read Roodman's thing): http://effective-altruism.com/ea/xo/givewells_charity_recommendations_require_taking/

Created by ioannes on 2016-05-17; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-06-11.

• ioannes estimated 70% on 2016-05-17
• ioannes   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-06-11.