Carl Shulman will point out something I did wrong on my quantitative models post.

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-05-18; known on 2016-05-25; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2016-05-19.

  • Michael Dickens estimated 70% on 2016-05-18
  • CarlShulman estimated 85% on 2016-05-19
  • Michael Dickens   judged this prediction right on 2016-05-19.
  • Michael Dickens said “Carl why didn’t you make a more confident prediction? In your position I probably would have said about 97%.on 2016-05-19
  • CarlShulman said “Limiting the bounty of insider trading.on 2016-05-20

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