Carl Shulman will point out something I did wrong on my quantitative models post.

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-05-18; known on 2016-05-25; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2016-05-19.

• Michael Dickens estimated 70% on 2016-05-18
• CarlShulman estimated 85% on 2016-05-19
• Michael Dickens   judged this prediction right on 2016-05-19.
• Michael Dickens said “Carl why didn’t you make a more confident prediction? In your position I probably would have said about 97%.” on 2016-05-19
• CarlShulman said “Limiting the bounty of insider trading.” on 2016-05-20