United Ireland by 2020

Created by elephantower on 2016-06-05; known on 2020-12-16; judged wrong by Reactionaryhistorian on 2020-10-12.

• elephantower estimated 5% on 2016-06-05
• themusicgod1 estimated 41% on 2016-06-05
• Waring estimated 1% on 2016-06-05
• Medea estimated 3% on 2016-06-06
• Bruno Parga said “I believe the odds for this are much higher if the UK leaves the EU than if it stays.” on 2016-06-08
• elephantower said “I agree” on 2016-06-08
• elephantower said “though brexit might be more effective in 10 years as the demographic ball keeps rolling and the sinn fein train (https://v.gd/tal32)) keeps chugging ” on 2016-06-08
• Paul.David.Carr estimated 10% on 2016-06-08
• Andrew MacFie estimated 1% on 2016-06-09
• theredarmy estimated 2% on 2016-06-14
• Reactionaryhistorian estimated 1% on 2016-06-14
• elephantower estimated 20% and said “Curious how other people would update their predictions based on brexit” on 2016-07-22
• elephantower said “To be clear, I’ll mark this prediction correct if a united ireland is approved (such as by a dual referendum) by 2020, even if the administrative process of ending partition takes longer” on 2016-07-22
• PseudonymousUser estimated 10% and said “Not impossible in the long-run, but not so soon.” on 2017-04-11
• telegrafista estimated 15% on 2019-02-14
• PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2020-06-16
• arrowinthedark estimated 0% on 2020-08-12
• NickN estimated 5% on 2020-08-16
• Reactionaryhistorian   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-10-12.