United Ireland by 2020

Created by elephantower on 2016-06-05; known on 2020-12-16

  • elephantower estimated 5% on 2016-06-05
  • themusicgod1 estimated 41% on 2016-06-05
  • Waring estimated 1% on 2016-06-05
  • Medea estimated 3% on 2016-06-06
  • Bruno Parga said “I believe the odds for this are much higher if the UK leaves the EU than if it stays.on 2016-06-08
  • elephantower said “I agreeon 2016-06-08
  • elephantower said “though brexit might be more effective in 10 years as the demographic ball keeps rolling and the sinn fein train (https://v.gd/tal32)) keeps chugging on 2016-06-08
  • Paul.David.Carr estimated 10% on 2016-06-08
  • Andrew MacFie estimated 1% on 2016-06-09
  • theredarmy estimated 2% on 2016-06-14
  • Reactionaryhistorian estimated 1% on 2016-06-14
  • elephantower estimated 20% and said “Curious how other people would update their predictions based on brexiton 2016-07-22
  • elephantower said “To be clear, I’ll mark this prediction correct if a united ireland is approved (such as by a dual referendum) by 2020, even if the administrative process of ending partition takes longeron 2016-07-22
  • pvoberstein estimated 10% and said “Not impossible in the long-run, but not so soon.on 2017-04-11
  • telegrafista estimated 15% on 2019-02-14
  • pvoberstein estimated 1% on 2020-06-16
  • arrowinthedark estimated 0% on 2020-08-12
  • NickN estimated 5% on 2020-08-16

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