80,000 Hours' blog will have a hackernews comment with >10% of the post's net upvotes that is critical of the volume of popups on the 80,000 Hours site.

Created by RyanCarey on 2016-06-07; known on 2016-06-09; judged unknown by RyanCarey on 2016-06-09.

• RyanCarey estimated 60% on 2016-06-07
• Michael Dickens said “Maybe this should be conditional on the post getting a decent number of upvotes? Most of my probability mass on this being false would be that it doesn’t get many comments in general. Otherwise I’d say 70-80%.” on 2016-06-07
• Michael Dickens said “https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11851842” on 2016-06-08
• RyanCarey   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-06-09.
• RyanCarey said “There was a top-level comment that harsly criticised the popups but it was lower among the page’s comments, making it unlikely to have recieved the 30+ upvotes. (though strictly speaking upvotes are not visible on comments)” on 2016-06-09
• RyanCarey   judged this prediction unknown on 2016-06-09.
• RyanCarey said “I’ve revised this as unjudgable because there are critical comments in multiple threads and the number of upvotes on comments is not available)https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11865070” on 2016-06-09