80,000 Hours' blog will have a hackernews comment with >10% of the post's net upvotes that is critical of the volume of popups on the 80,000 Hours site.
- RyanCarey estimated 60% on 2016-06-07
- Michael Dickens said “Maybe this should be conditional on the post getting a decent number of upvotes? Most of my probability mass on this being false would be that it doesn’t get many comments in general. Otherwise I’d say 70-80%.” on 2016-06-07
- Michael Dickens said “https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11851842” on 2016-06-08
- RyanCarey judged this prediction wrong on 2016-06-09.
- RyanCarey said “There was a top-level comment that harsly criticised the popups but it was lower among the page’s comments, making it unlikely to have recieved the 30+ upvotes. (though strictly speaking upvotes are not visible on comments)” on 2016-06-09
- RyanCarey judged this prediction unknown on 2016-06-09.
- RyanCarey said “I’ve revised this as unjudgable because there are critical comments in multiple threads and the number of upvotes on comments is not available)https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11865070” on 2016-06-09
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