Trump picks Chris Christie for VP

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-16; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.

  • themusicgod1 estimated 9% on 2016-06-16
  • Paul.David.Carr estimated 15% on 2016-06-21
  • predictit estimated 22% and said “This acct posts probabilities from predictit.org, to test its accuracy relative to mine (and others’), and record why I think the market is biased (if applicable). See other predictions on "predictit"’s user page and test your acumen against it too.on 2016-07-14
  • elephantower estimated 8% and said “My prior is extremely low — I don’t get the impression they like each other much and it doesn’t really help Trump at all (or generate much media attn). Also, the likelihood ratio of him being on the shortlist list is low: he’d be included anywayson 2016-07-14
  • elephantower said “because of his status as a Trump slaveon 2016-07-14
  • PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-07-14.

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