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SPOILER GAME OF THRONES ASOIAF. Pbaqvgvbany ba E+Y=W orvat erirnyrq ba F6R10, gur raqvat fprar jvyy or bs vg orvat erirnyrq.

Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-22; known on 2016-06-29; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-06-27.

  • two2thehead estimated 90% on 2016-06-22
  • two2thehead said “Fvzvyne gb ubj Wbua Fabj jnf xvyyrq ng gur raq bs F5R10.” on 2016-06-22
  • two2thehead said “Wanted to post 80 percent but my first instinct was 90.” on 2016-06-22
  • two2thehead said “ROT13’ed using this site.http://rot13.com/” on 2016-06-22
  • two2thehead changed the deadline from “on 2016-06-29” and changed their prediction from “Tbg/NFBVNS Cerqvpgvba Fcbvyre. Pbaqvgvbany ba E+Y=W orvat erirnyrq ba F6R10, gur raqvat fprar jvyy or bs vg orvat erirnyrq.” on 2016-06-22
  • two2thehead said “Thank you to Khoth and SDr from the lesswrong irc channel for suggesting a better method of signalling spoilers. :-)” on 2016-06-22
  • two2thehead changed the deadline from “on 2016-06-29” and changed their prediction from “SPOILER SPOILER GAME OF THRONES ASOIAF. Pbaqvgvbany ba E+Y=W orvat erirnyrq ba F6R10, gur raqvat fprar jvyy or bs vg orvat erirnyrq.” on 2016-06-22
  • two2thehead said “Removed the extraneous word to make it less obnoxious. Pardon the edits in such quick succession. I’m hoping “training” hard on little predictions will pay off with less frequent edits in the future.” on 2016-06-22
  • PlacidPlatypus said “Can you commit to withdrawing the prediction if the conditional isn’t met? I have been annoyed before by conditionals being abandoned by their creator and nobody else can resolve them.” on 2016-06-22
  • two2thehead said “Ah. Good point. I will mark the prediction withdrawn if I am wrong about this prediction within the time period. :-) Not sure if that meets your requirements though.” on 2016-06-23
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 50% and said “As long as I have your personal assurance that you won’t leave it lying around for months that should be fine.” on 2016-06-23
  • Michael Dickens estimated 50% and said “I don’t expect it to happen this season but if so then seems semi-likely that this prediction is right. But seems like it would need some resolution.” on 2016-06-26
  • two2thehead   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-06-27.
  • two2thehead said “Worth a bet but I was wrong.” on 2016-06-27
  • Michael Dickens said “I don’t think R+L=J was revealed, it was just heavily implied. We only got slightly more information than we already had in the books. So I would count this prediction as withdrawn.” on 2016-06-27
  • two2thehead said “I don’t know about how the ‘withdrawn’ judgment works. How is it different from ‘wrong’?” on 2016-06-27
  • PlacidPlatypus said “If you withdraw it I believe it doesn’t count as right or wrong. But I would definitely consider what we saw a firm reveal so I would be strongly against withdrawing.” on 2016-07-01
  • two2thehead said “Ah. Good to know. :-)” on 2016-07-02