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Boris Johnson will be the next leader of the Conservative Party

Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-06-30.

  • splorridge estimated 72% on 2016-06-24
  • themusicgod1 estimated 9% on 2016-06-24
  • splorridge said “Out of interest, who do you think it is likely to be?” on 2016-06-24
  • themusicgod1 said “I’m not sure: my priors are pretty spread out. I would caution at jumping to conclusions after a single event, however remarkable, though.” on 2016-06-24
  • splorridge said “fair” on 2016-06-25
  • splorridge estimated 81% and said “New leader will be chosen by 2/9/16. Short time scale bodes well for Boris.” on 2016-06-27
  • splorridge estimated 56% and said “Not confident of anything any more. Crabb is in the race now. Who knows?” on 2016-06-29
  • splorridge estimated 35% on 2016-06-30
  • splorridge   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-06-30.