Another EU country will decide to leave before 2020

Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-01-01.

  • splorridge estimated 68% on 2016-06-24
  • Reactionaryhistorian estimated 40% on 2016-06-24
  • Reactionaryhistorian estimated 40% on 2016-06-24
  • themusicgod1 estimated 57% on 2016-06-24
  • hedges estimated 55% on 2016-06-24
  • ioannes estimated 45% on 2016-06-24
  • kuudes said “What is the event that would trigger this? Article 50 notification, parliament decision, counted referendum? Mind you that technically UK has not yet made a binding decision to leave etc. Just a request to sharpen, I suppose.on 2016-06-25
  • ejlflop estimated 70% on 2016-06-25
  • splorridge said “kuudes, I suppose I mean either a positive referendum result like the UK has had or a similar decision by parliament. The prediction is interested in the decision, not the process actually starting.on 2016-06-25
  • elephantower estimated 40% on 2016-06-27
  • Medea estimated 60% on 2016-06-27
  • jasticE estimated 6% on 2016-06-28
  • booradleytron estimated 70% on 2016-07-05
  • Ben Doherty estimated 35% and said “2020 is actually quite soon. The UK probably won’t even have their act together by then! on 2016-07-05
  • Paul.David.Carr estimated 54% on 2016-07-07
  • davatk estimated 20% on 2018-04-26
  • kiimberlie estimated 10% on 2018-05-16
  • Paul.David.Carr   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.

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