Trump VP pick is Mike Pence

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.

  • themusicgod1 estimated 8% on 2016-06-25
  • jesselevine estimated 15% on 2016-07-02
  • Jenson estimated 5% on 2016-07-06
  • elephantower estimated 20% on 2016-07-12
  • predictit estimated 44% and said “This acct posts probabilities from, to test its accuracy relative to mine (and others’), and record why I think the market is biased (if applicable). See other predictions on "predictit"’s user page and test your acumen against it too.on 2016-07-13
  • predictit said “Trump covets unpredictability, and Pence is not a very strong pick, so both my prior and likelihood ratio are low. That is, Trump is not much more likely to claim Pence is at the top of the list in worlds where Pence will be the VPon 2016-07-13
  • predictit said “Thus, predictit’s estimate is too high — possibly biased by not thinking about likelihood ratios/bias towards certaintyon 2016-07-13
  • predictit estimated 47% and said “44% was a typo :(on 2016-07-14
  • two2thehead estimated 80% and said “The Trump Sessions veep prediction dinged me good. Let’s see if I learned anything from that being (at this point probably) wrong.on 2016-07-14
  • elephantower estimated 56% and said “updatedon 2016-07-14
  • elephantower said “oh no I meant to post that from the predictit acct — that’s predictit’s odds, not mineon 2016-07-14
  • Jenson estimated 50% and said “60% that “anonymous sources” are correct. Doesn’t seem like the Trump way to undermine a big announcement by letting details leak.on 2016-07-14
  • Jenson estimated 60% and said “Typoon 2016-07-14
  • two2thehead said “I take your point regarding Trump being good at stopping leaks. But this isn’t just Trump and his team. If Pence were the choice, this extends the number of people to Pence’s team.on 2016-07-14
  • PseudonymousUser said “good job two2theheadon 2016-07-14
  • PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction right on 2016-07-14.
  • two2thehead said “Yea! (^___^)on 2016-07-14

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